Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Yainer Diaz

HOU · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs TBDrew Rasmussen
Sample1777.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 52.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 52.8% Market 73.7% Gap +13.9pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.5% Market -- Gap +3.8pp
FanDuel 330 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
55
Exit velocity88.8
62
Hard-hit%38.5%
51 -27 vs proj
xBA0.319
52
xSLG0.480
43
xwOBA0.302
47 -32 vs proj
BB%3.5%
6
Bat speed71.0
72
K%16.3%
84
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
47
Catcher Throwing-0.6 · C
40
Framing Runs-4.0 · C
14
Pop Time2.0 · C
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.0 · C
17
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.1%
11
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0%
86
Correct Decisions64.8%
36
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.306 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.307 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.342
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.378
RegressionNegative · -0.033
Opposing pitcherDrew Rasmussen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)