Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Alec Burleson

STL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 3 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSTL vs SFLanden Roupp
Sample1959.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 10.5
Model 16.6% Market 13.3% Gap +2.8pp
DraftKings 625 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.2% Market 78.3% Gap +15.6pp
BetMGM -360 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
88 +25 vs proj
Exit velocity92.0
93
Hard-hit%50.0%
93 +24 vs proj
xBA0.360
88
xSLG0.647
89
xwOBA0.374
97
BB%8.0%
44
Bat speed71.8
77
K%17.2%
82
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 1B
45
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
13
Range Runs-1.6 · 1B
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
28
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
11
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.7%
22
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
57
Correct Decisions63.3%
24
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.318 to 0.376
RegressionPositive · 0.005
Opposing pitcherLanden Roupp
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)