Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 12 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

José Caballero

NYY · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs COLRyan Feltner
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.056, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.052, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 49.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 57.7% Market 58.3% Gap +8.9pp
BetMGM -140 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.2%
26
Exit velocity81.1
3
Hard-hit%26.8%
9
xBA0.314
45
xSLG0.464
36
xwOBA0.281
26
BB%6.2%
24 -27 vs proj
Bat speed64.8
7
K%23.9%
44 +16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · SS
3
Arm Strength90.2 · SS
75
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
72
Range Runs2.1 · SS
75
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · SS
52
SB Success Rate72.4% · SS
30
Sprint Speed28.0 · SS
65

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.251 to 0.326
RegressionNegative · -0.028
Opposing pitcherRyan Feltner
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-12
Palantir 19869 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19869 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 14193 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1758 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1254 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9476 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 766 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 993 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.056 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)