Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Julio Rodríguez

SEA · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 5 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs TEXJacob deGrom
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.4
F 12.0
V 13.4
Model 17.0% Market 17.5% Gap -1.1pp
DraftKings 450 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.5% Market 81.5% Gap +16.8pp
BetMGM -440 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
70
Exit velocity90.1
78
Hard-hit%44.0%
77 -15 vs proj
xBA0.351
83
xSLG0.588
77
xwOBA0.334
80
BB%7.1%
34
Bat speed75.1
98
K%22.6%
52
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.3 · CF
81
Arm Strength98.5 · CF
85
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
12
Range Runs-1.7 · CF
28
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.3 · CF
90
Bolts26.0 · CF
79
SB Success Rate85.7% · CF
67
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
86

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.312 to 0.400
RegressionPositive · 0.015
Opposing pitcherJacob deGrom
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)