Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-07-01 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-01

Ezequiel Duran

TEX · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTEX vs CLEJoey Cantillo
Sample1346.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.7
F 14.2
V 13.5
Model 15.5% Market 9.1% Gap +6.1pp
DraftKings 965 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 78.6% Market 79.6% Gap +13.4pp
BetMGM -390 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.6% Market -- Gap +1.7pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
46
Exit velocity87.6
42
Hard-hit%37.4%
43
xBA0.342
70
xSLG0.490
43
xwOBA0.301
42 +21 vs proj
BB%7.0%
31 +16 vs proj
Bat speed69.5
48
K%23.5%
43
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
82
Arm Strength97.7 · SS
100
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
69
Range Runs5.0 · SS
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · SS
66
Bolts11.0 · SS
71
SB Success Rate85.7% · SS
66
Sprint Speed29.0 · SS
91
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2%
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.2%
30
Correct Decisions62.5%
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
19
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.355 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.315
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.295
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.396
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.241 to 0.324
RegressionNegative · -0.048
Opposing pitcherJoey Cantillo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)