Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-08-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-01

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto
Sample1259.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 11.7
Model 15.7% Market 15.7% Gap -0.6pp
DraftKings 515 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.9% Market 75.0% Gap +13.7pp
BetMGM -300 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
90
Exit velocity89.5
69
Hard-hit%41.3%
61 -20 vs proj
xBA0.330
62
xSLG0.603
80
xwOBA0.337
79
BB%9.4%
60
Bat speed72.4
82
K%21.3%
56 +24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.7 · RF
66
Arm Strength99.9 · RF
94
Outs Above Avg5.0 · RF
96
Range Runs4.1 · RF
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · RF
19
Bolts3.0 · RF
41
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
21
Sprint Speed28.1 · RF
69
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.5%
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
52
Correct Decisions65.5%
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.306 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.350 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.354
RegressionNegative · -0.005
Opposing pitcherYoshinobu Yamamoto
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)