Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-08-01 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
68
Matched
264
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-08-01 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Evan Carter TEX
IN
TEX vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 6
 16.8%Palantir 11.0%market +5.9pp
P 16.8
F 14.3
V 12.3
4.5pp 1.145xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
02
Daylen Lile WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 3
 14.2%Palantir 10.5%market +3.7pp
P 14.2
F 11.0
V 8.7
5.5pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
03
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1
 14.8%Palantir 11.2%market +3.7pp
P 14.8
F 14.3
V 10.9
3.9pp 1.145xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
04
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 1
 17.5%Palantir 14.4%market +3.1pp
P 17.5
F 14.3
V 15.9
3.2pp 1.145xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 570 avg 3 books
05
Jonathan Aranda TB
Lineup pending
TB vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 3
 15.1%Palantir 12.7%market +2.3pp
P 15.1
F 17.2
V 11.2
5.9pp 1.096xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 655 avg 3 books
06
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 1
 15.5%Palantir 13.3%market +2.2pp
P 15.5
F 14.3
V 12.1
3.4pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
07
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 3
 17.6%Palantir 15.6%market +2.0pp
P 17.6
F 16.3
V 16.7
1.3pp 1.145xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 515 avg 3 books
08
Heliot Ramos SF
IN
SF vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 5
 14.6%Palantir 13.1%market +1.5pp
P 14.6
F 14.3
V 12.3
2.3pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
09
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3
 16.3%Palantir 15.0%market +1.3pp
P 16.3
F 14.3
V 15.5
2.1pp 1.145xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
10
Andrew Benintendi CWS
IN
CWS vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 4
 14.2%Palantir 13.0%market +1.2pp
P 14.2
F 14.3
V 10.3
4.0pp 1.096xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
11
Yandy Díaz TB
IN
TB vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 2
 15.2%Palantir 14.2%market +1.0pp
P 15.2
F 17.2
V 13.1
4.0pp 1.096xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 575 avg 3 books
12
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 5
 10.6%Palantir 9.7%market +0.9pp
P 10.6
F 13.2
V 8.5
4.7pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 900 avg 3 books
13
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs BALShane Baz · slot 6
 11.4%Palantir 11.0%market +0.5pp
P 11.4
F 14.0
V 10.0
4.0pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
14
Bryan Reynolds PIT
IN
PIT vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 5
 13.8%Palantir 13.5%market +0.4pp
P 13.8
F 13.2
V 16.9
3.7pp 1.095xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
15
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 1
 12.1%Palantir 11.8%market +0.3pp
P 12.1
F 12.6
V 9.3
3.4pp 0.982xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
16
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 7
 12.1%Palantir 12.5%market -0.4pp
P 12.1
F 13.3
V 9.6
3.7pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
17
Jacob Wilson ATH
IN
ATH vs DETFramber Valdez · slot 6
 8.9%Palantir 9.5%market -0.6pp
P 8.9
F 0.0
V 8.7
8.9pp 1.075xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 950 avg 3 books
18
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs BALShane Baz · slot 5
 10.6%Palantir 11.2%market -0.6pp
P 10.6
F 12.6
V 10.5
2.1pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 795 avg 3 books
19
Mike Yastrzemski ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 6
 13.4%Palantir 14.1%market -0.7pp
P 13.4
F 14.0
V 11.9
2.1pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
20
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 7
 9.4%Palantir 10.1%market -0.7pp
P 9.4
F 11.2
V 8.1
3.1pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 890 avg 3 books
21
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs BALShane Baz · slot 1
 14.1%Palantir 14.8%market -0.7pp
P 14.1
F 13.2
V 14.2
0.9pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
22
Alec Burleson STL
IN
STL vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 3
 12.8%Palantir 13.8%market -1.0pp
P 12.8
F 14.0
V 12.5
1.5pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 625 avg 3 books
23
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 5
 12.9%Palantir 14.1%market -1.2pp
P 12.9
F 12.6
V 15.9
3.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 610 avg 3 books
24
Cedric Mullins TB
Lineup pending
TB vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 5
 12.6%Palantir 14.2%market -1.6pp
P 12.6
F 12.6
V 12.0
0.6pp 1.096xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
25
Josh Bell MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 4
 13.4%Palantir 15.5%market -2.1pp
P 13.4
F 13.3
V 13.4
0.1pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
26
Joc Pederson TEX
IN
TEX vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 5
 12.1%Palantir 14.8%market -2.7pp
P 12.1
F 14.0
V 15.7
3.6pp 1.145xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
27
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 5
 9.9%Palantir 13.0%market -3.1pp
P 9.9
F 12.2
V 17.6
7.7pp 1.122xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
28
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 3
 13.1%Palantir 16.3%market -3.1pp
P 13.1
F 11.2
V 16.7
5.5pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
29
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 5
 12.8%Palantir 16.0%market -3.2pp
P 12.8
F 14.0
V 14.3
1.5pp 1.145xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
30
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
 14.9%Palantir 18.2%market -3.3pp
P 14.9
F 14.0
V 15.0
1.0pp 1.145xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
31
Iván Herrera STL
IN
STL vs TORKevin Gausman · slot 2
 14.5%Palantir 12.5%market +2.0pp
P 14.5
F 14.0
V 12.4
2.1pp 0.965xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
32
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 7
 7.9%Palantir 7.7%market +0.2pp
P 7.9
F 10.6
V 8.2
2.7pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
33
Jake Mangum PIT
IN
PIT vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 1
 7.9%Palantir 7.7%market +0.2pp
P 7.9
F 11.0
V 12.4
4.5pp 1.095xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
34
Edgar Quero CWS
IN
CWS vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 6
 7.6%Palantir 8.0%market -0.4pp
P 7.6
F 12.2
V 8.2
4.6pp 1.096xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
35
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 1
 7.2%Palantir 8.0%market -0.8pp
P 7.2
F 11.2
V 15.3
8.1pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
36
James Wood WSH
IN
WSH vs ATLMartín Pérez · slot 2
 15.4%Palantir 16.7%market -1.3pp
P 15.4
F 14.3
V 14.4
1.1pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 500 avg 3 books
37
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 1
 8.9%Palantir 11.0%market -2.1pp
P 8.9
F 4.9
V 13.0
8.1pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
38
José Caballero NYY
IN
NYY vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 1
 5.8%Palantir 8.3%market -2.5pp
P 5.8
F 6.7
V 10.2
4.4pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1100 avg 3 books
39
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs LADYoshinobu Yamamoto · slot 4
 13.3%Palantir 16.3%market -3.0pp
P 13.3
F 13.3
V 11.7
1.6pp 0.982xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
40
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs NYYMax Fried · slot 6
 11.2%Palantir 14.3%market -3.1pp
P 11.2
F 12.6
V 10.2
2.4pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 600 avg 3 books
41
Willy Adames SF
IN
SF vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 4
 14.4%Palantir 17.7%market -3.3pp
P 14.4
F 13.2
V 13.9
1.2pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
42
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs COLRyan Feltner · slot 4
 14.7%Palantir 18.0%market -3.3pp
P 14.7
F 14.0
V 19.0
5.1pp 1.122xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
43
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs NYYMax Fried · slot 1
 4.5%Palantir 8.0%market -3.5pp
P 4.5
F 6.7
V 10.7
6.2pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
44
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 1
 13.7%Palantir 17.2%market -3.5pp
P 13.7
F 14.0
V 16.5
2.8pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
45
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 4
 14.9%Palantir 18.7%market -3.7pp
P 14.9
F 14.0
V 16.7
2.7pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 435 avg 3 books
46
Chase Meidroth CWS
IN
CWS vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 1
 4.2%Palantir 8.0%market -3.8pp
P 4.2
F 4.9
V 11.0
6.8pp 1.096xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
47
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs NYYMax Fried · slot 4
 11.6%Palantir 15.5%market -3.9pp
P 11.6
F 12.6
V 11.5
1.1pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
48
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs BALShane Baz · slot 2
 15.7%Palantir 19.6%market -3.9pp
P 15.7
F 14.3
V 15.2
1.4pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
49
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 3
 11.5%Palantir 16.0%market -4.5pp
P 11.5
F 14.0
V 14.8
3.3pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
50
Chandler Simpson TB
IN
TB vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 1
 3.2%Palantir 8.0%market -4.8pp
P 3.2
F 0.0
V 6.2
6.2pp 1.096xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
51
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 1
 14.1%Palantir 19.4%market -5.3pp
P 14.1
F 14.0
V 16.9
2.9pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
52
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs NYYMax Fried · slot 5
 10.4%Palantir 15.9%market -5.5pp
P 10.4
F 12.6
V 13.0
2.5pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
53
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 1
 11.9%Palantir 17.4%market -5.5pp
P 11.9
F 12.2
V 15.8
3.9pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 475 avg 3 books
54
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 4
 11.3%Palantir 17.0%market -5.7pp
P 11.3
F 12.6
V 15.8
4.5pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
55
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs SFTyler Mahle · slot 2
 13.0%Palantir 18.9%market -5.9pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 17.3
4.3pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
56
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs SDWalker Buehler · slot 2
 14.9%Palantir 20.8%market -6.0pp
P 14.9
F 13.2
V 14.8
1.7pp 0.981xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
57
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs SEALogan Gilbert · slot 5
 9.7%Palantir 15.8%market -6.1pp
P 9.7
F 12.3
V 13.9
4.3pp 1.002xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
58
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 2
 14.5%Palantir 20.8%market -6.3pp
P 14.5
F 14.3
V 15.8
1.5pp 1.145xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
59
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs WSHMiles Mikolas · slot 2
 15.1%Palantir 21.7%market -6.7pp
P 15.1
F 14.0
V 16.5
2.5pp 1.041xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
60
Tyler O'Neill BAL
IN
BAL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 3
 12.0%Palantir 19.1%market -7.0pp
P 12.0
F 14.0
V 15.8
3.7pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 425 avg 3 books
61
Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY
IN
NYY vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 5
 10.8%Palantir 17.9%market -7.1pp
P 10.8
F 12.6
V 15.5
4.8pp 0.866xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 460 avg 3 books
62
Corey Seager TEX
IN
TEX vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 2
 15.3%Palantir 22.5%market -7.2pp
P 15.3
F 14.3
V 17.0
2.7pp 1.145xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 345 avg 3 books
63
Marcell Ozuna PIT
IN
PIT vs CINAndrew Abbott · slot 2
 14.2%Palantir 22.0%market -7.8pp
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 15.1
2.4pp 1.095xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
64
Jake Burger TEX
Lineup pending
TEX vs HOURonel Blanco · slot 4
 11.2%Palantir 19.2%market -8.0pp
P 11.2
F 12.6
V 15.3
4.1pp 1.145xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 420 avg 3 books
65
Junior Caminero TB
IN
TB vs CWSJordan Hicks · slot 4
 13.4%Palantir 22.0%market -8.6pp
P 13.4
F 14.3
V 12.1
2.2pp 1.096xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 355 avg 3 books
66
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs PHICristopher Sánchez · slot 2
 14.0%Palantir 23.8%market -9.8pp
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 16.5
3.9pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 320 avg 3 books
67
Colson Montgomery CWS
IN
CWS vs TBDrew Rasmussen · slot 3
 11.6%Palantir 23.3%market -11.7pp
P 11.6
F 12.2
V 12.2
0.6pp 1.096xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 330 avg 3 books
68
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs BALShane Baz · slot 3
 14.4%Palantir 27.0%market -12.7pp
P 14.4
F 14.0
V 15.0
1.1pp 1.048xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status2471roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.