Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Wilyer Abreu

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 27
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs KCSeth Lugo
Sample1392.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.2
F 13.2
V 11.4
Model 16.2% Market 15.7% Gap -0.1pp
DraftKings 515 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 60.2% Market 75.0% Gap +14.4pp
FanDuel -120 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.1% Market -- Gap +11.1pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
91
Exit velocity89.7
74
Hard-hit%43.4%
74
xBA0.331
64
xSLG0.616
83
xwOBA0.350
91
BB%10.6%
76
Bat speed72.3
83
K%20.2%
65 +30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.4 · RF
91
Arm Strength99.9 · RF
91
Outs Above Avg3.0 · RF
93
Range Runs2.3 · RF
73
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.2 · RF
22
Bolts4.0 · RF
42
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
20
Sprint Speed28.0 · RF
65
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.4%
56
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9%
65
Correct Decisions66.5%
54
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
60
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.348 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.387
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.354
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherSeth Lugo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)