Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-06-18 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-18

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
Model 21.0% Market 17.3% Gap +3.0pp
FanDuel 455 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 73.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.6% Market 81.7% Gap +3.0pp
FanDuel -165 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 36.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 36.5% Market -- Gap +4.3pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.5%
88
Exit velocity93.3
95
Hard-hit%53.6%
95
xBA0.385
94
xSLG0.641
84
xwOBA0.387
96
BB%10.0%
66 +34 vs proj
Bat speed71.7
76
K%17.9%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength94.0 · SS
93
Outs Above Avg16.0 · SS
100
Range Runs12.2 · SS
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.2 · SS
97
Bolts58.0 · SS
100
SB Success Rate87.5% · SS
76
Sprint Speed30.3 · SS
99
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.2%
32
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3%
38
Correct Decisions63.4%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.332
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.326 to 0.422
RegressionPositive · 0.006
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)