Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-07-10 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-10

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs BALBrandon Young
Sample2838.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.3
F 16.3
V 17.4
Model 20.9% Market 16.9% Gap +3.3pp
FanDuel 470 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 72.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.5% Market 84.7% Gap +13.1pp
FanDuel -155 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 34.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 34.9% Market -- Gap +5.9pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.8%
90
Exit velocity93.3
96
Hard-hit%53.9%
97
xBA0.386
94
xSLG0.645
86
xwOBA0.391
98
BB%9.8%
65 +33 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
78
K%17.4%
78
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
81
Arm Strength94.0 · SS
92
Outs Above Avg17.0 · SS
100
Range Runs13.0 · SS
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.9 · SS
97
Bolts66.0 · SS
99
SB Success Rate88.9% · SS
76
Sprint Speed30.2 · SS
99
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.0%
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4%
38
Correct Decisions63.3%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
29
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.312 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.365
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.367
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.326 to 0.422
RegressionPositive · 0.011
Opposing pitcherBrandon Young
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)