Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-08-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-24

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 9 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCOL vs WSHCade Cavalli
Sample2019.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.3
F 11.3
V 11.2
Model 17.5% Market 12.6% Gap +4.5pp
DraftKings 670 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.9% Market 71.8% Gap +12.2pp
BetMGM -255 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 25.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 25.0% Market -- Gap +7.2pp
FanDuel 440 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
48 -18 vs proj
Exit velocity85.8
26
Hard-hit%33.4%
28 -28 vs proj
xBA0.303
30
xSLG0.493
46
xwOBA0.274
20 -23 vs proj
BB%6.2%
23
Bat speed69.7
51
K%25.0%
35
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · SS
83
Arm Strength90.2 · SS
75
Outs Above Avg1.0 · SS
70
Range Runs0.2 · SS
55
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · SS
77
Sprint Speed28.0 · SS
66
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.0%
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.4%
94
Correct Decisions63.3%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.270
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherCade Cavalli
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)