Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-10 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-10

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 9 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs NYYMax Fried
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.2
F 11.7
V 10.5
Model 18.9% Market 12.9% Gap +5.5pp
FanDuel 645 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.7% Market 72.6% Gap +13.4pp
BetMGM -265 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 23.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.1% Market -- Gap +11.6pp
FanDuel 550 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
50 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity86.1
30
Hard-hit%33.4%
28 -30 vs proj
xBA0.309
38
xSLG0.502
52
xwOBA0.275
22 -23 vs proj
BB%6.0%
23
Bat speed69.8
52
K%25.8%
34
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · SS
80
Arm Strength90.2 · SS
75
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
46
Range Runs0.1 · SS
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.9 · SS
78
Sprint Speed28.0 · SS
65
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.007
Opposing pitcherMax Fried
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)