Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCOL vs DETFramber Valdez
Sample2055.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.1
F 10.8
V 9.6
Model 17.0% Market 12.9% Gap +3.6pp
FanDuel 645 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.6% Market 74.4% Gap +14.2pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 22.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.6% Market -- Gap +8.1pp
FanDuel 500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
50 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity86.0
30
Hard-hit%33.1%
27 -31 vs proj
xBA0.310
40
xSLG0.502
52
xwOBA0.277
24 -21 vs proj
BB%6.2%
24
Bat speed69.8
52
K%25.6%
35
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · SS
80
Arm Strength90.2 · SS
75
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
46
Range Runs0.1 · SS
56
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.9 · SS
78
Sprint Speed28.0 · SS
65
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.3%
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.3%
91
Correct Decisions63.0%
22
Resists FastballwOBA 0.271
100
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline94
19
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.008
Opposing pitcherFramber Valdez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)