Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-07-01 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-01

Ceddanne Rafaela

BOS · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupBOS vs WSHBrad Lord
Sample1470.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 21.6
F 17.9
V 13.5
Model 20.4% Market 12.3% Gap +7.6pp
DraftKings 685 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 78.8% Market 79.8% Gap +13.5pp
BetMGM -395 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 32.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 32.3% Market -- Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 185 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.8%
31 -24 vs proj
Exit velocity86.3
29
Hard-hit%35.8%
34
xBA0.307
32
xSLG0.445
28
xwOBA0.284
28
BB%5.3%
15
Bat speed67.4
24
K%19.9%
64
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.4 · CF
88
Arm Strength97.5 · CF
86
Outs Above Avg11.0 · CF
99
Range Runs9.9 · CF
99
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · CF
78
Bolts15.0 · CF
75
SB Success Rate62.5% · CF
14
Sprint Speed29.1 · CF
92
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.9%
20
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
48
Correct Decisions62.5%
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
21
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.362 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.274 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.098
Opposing pitcherBrad Lord
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)