Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-07-28 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-28

Spencer Torkelson

DET · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 6 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupDET vs BALDean Kremer
Sample2229.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.0
F 13.6
V 15.6
Model 16.2% Market 16.5% Gap -0.9pp
DraftKings 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.7% Market 69.7% Gap +12.2pp
BetMGM -230 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 16.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.6% Market -- Gap +8.5pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
90
Exit velocity89.7
71
Hard-hit%42.4%
65 -19 vs proj
xBA0.340
71
xSLG0.659
89
xwOBA0.317
61
BB%10.5%
73
Bat speed71.5
75
K%31.2%
12 -28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-12.0 · 1B
1
Range Runs-8.7 · 1B
2
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
24
Bolts1.0 · 1B
15
Sprint Speed26.4 · 1B
25
SB Success Rate0.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.5%
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.2%
69
Correct Decisions72.5%
93
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.310 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.250 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.393
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.373
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherDean Kremer
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)