Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-07-29 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-29

Spencer Torkelson

DET · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs BALTrevor Rogers
Sample2233.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.5
F 14.9
V 15.1
Model 18.2% Market 16.7% Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.0% Market 73.0% Gap +13.1pp
BetMGM -270 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 17.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.3% Market -- Gap +6.3pp
FanDuel 340 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.5%
89
Exit velocity89.8
73
Hard-hit%42.5%
66 -18 vs proj
xBA0.343
74
xSLG0.660
89
xwOBA0.318
63
BB%10.4%
72
Bat speed71.5
75
K%30.9%
13 -27 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-11.0 · 1B
1
Range Runs-8.6 · 1B
2
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 1B
25
Bolts1.0 · 1B
15
Sprint Speed26.4 · 1B
25
SB Success Rate0.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.2%
95
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.3%
67
Correct Decisions72.4%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.251 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.392
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.373
RegressionNegative · -0.016
Opposing pitcherTrevor Rogers
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)