Mithrandir Metrics
CLE 2026-08-13 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-13

Steven Kwan

CLE · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCLE vs DETKeider Montero
Sample2690.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.7
F 13.2
V 11.3
Model 13.5% Market 8.7% Gap +4.5pp
DraftKings 1010 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.6% Market 74.7% Gap +13.6pp
BetMGM -295 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 29.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.2% Market -- Gap +3.0pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.2%
2
Exit velocity81.9
4
Hard-hit%9.3%
0
xBA0.313
39
xSLG0.384
9
xwOBA0.324
70
BB%13.6%
92
Bat speed60.0
0
K%10.6%
98
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · LF
59
Arm Strength92.4 · LF
45
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
47
Range Runs5.6 · LF
92
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · CF
60
SB Success Rate80.0% · CF
47
Sprint Speed27.1 · CF
42
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 77.3%
96
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.7%
15
Correct Decisions67.5%
65
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351
26
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.249
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.327 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.296 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.022
Opposing pitcherKeider Montero
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)