Mithrandir Metrics
BOS 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Jarren Duran

BOS · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupBOS vs KCSeth Lugo
Sample2452.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.4
F 12.5
V 8.2
Model 18.6% Market 11.8% Gap +6.3pp
DraftKings 715 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 72.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.0% Market 83.7% Gap +17.8pp
FanDuel -115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 30.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.8% Market -- Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
73
Exit velocity89.2
68
Hard-hit%41.9%
67 -17 vs proj
xBA0.340
74
xSLG0.567
71
xwOBA0.301
47 -35 vs proj
BB%6.9%
33
Bat speed73.0
89
K%27.3%
27 -25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.6 · LF
17
Arm Strength92.0 · LF
39
Outs Above Avg5.0 · LF
96
Range Runs4.8 · LF
86
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.5 · LF
91
Bolts11.0 · LF
66
SB Success Rate87.5% · LF
74
Sprint Speed29.0 · LF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.7%
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.3%
39
Correct Decisions63.6%
25
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337
54
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.374
RegressionPositive · 0.004
Opposing pitcherSeth Lugo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)