Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Brendan Donovan

SEA · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IL10 · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs TEXKumar Rocker
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.2
F 15.5
V 8.5
Model 18.8% Market 9.8% Gap +8.7pp
DraftKings 890 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 78.2% Market 79.2% Gap +14.9pp
BetMGM -380 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
33
Exit velocity87.6
42
Hard-hit%36.0%
34 -18 vs proj
xBA0.322
52
xSLG0.470
37
xwOBA0.344
83
BB%11.0%
76 +41 vs proj
Bat speed66.7
17
K%14.2%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 3B
7
Range Runs-3.7 · 3B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.2 · 3B
7
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.4%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.294
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.357 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.376
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.303 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.168
Opposing pitcherKumar Rocker
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)