Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-07-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-01

Bryson Stott

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs PITPaul Skenes
Sample2295.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.0
F 13.6
V 14.8
Model 15.0% Market 10.0% Gap +4.6pp
DraftKings 865 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 53.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 53.2% Market 76.2% Gap +12.6pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 19.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 19.9% Market -- Gap +3.9pp
FanDuel 320 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
53 +28 vs proj
Exit velocity88.9
57
Hard-hit%39.2%
49 +27 vs proj
xBA0.325
54
xSLG0.505
49
xwOBA0.322
63
BB%7.1%
31
Bat speed67.9
27
K%16.9%
80
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 2B
53
Arm Strength86.5 · 2B
51
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 2B
86
Range Runs1.8 · 2B
72
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.2 · 2B
98
Bolts1.0 · 2B
14
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
93
Sprint Speed28.4 · 2B
79
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.4%
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.3%
8
Correct Decisions61.7%
14
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
23
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.315
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.337
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.274 to 0.362
RegressionNegative · -0.013
Opposing pitcherPaul Skenes
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)