Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Colton Cowser

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 8 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs TORMax Scherzer
Sample1192.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 49.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 49.6% Market 63.6% Gap +10.5pp
FanDuel 180 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 11.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 11.0% Market -- Gap +7.4pp
FanDuel 490 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
67
Exit velocity87.1
42
Hard-hit%40.7%
60
xBA0.335
69
xSLG0.634
86
xwOBA0.317
67
BB%11.9%
87
Bat speed71.4
75
K%30.8%
13
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.0 · CF
29
Arm Strength97.2 · CF
77
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
81
Range Runs8.3 · CF
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.7 · CF
56
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
20
Sprint Speed28.0 · CF
65
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.4%
57
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8%
34
Correct Decisions64.7%
34
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
48
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.274 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.385
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.268 to 0.379
RegressionNegative · -0.001
Opposing pitcherMax Scherzer
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)