Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Connor Norby

MIA · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 7 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIA vs NYMSean Manaea
Sample767.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 53.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.7% Market 64.9% Gap +11.1pp
BetMGM -185 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 13.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.9% Market -- Gap +2.8pp
FanDuel 500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
45 -26 vs proj
Exit velocity86.8
38
Hard-hit%35.6%
37
xBA0.321
54
xSLG0.518
57
xwOBA0.299
45 -24 vs proj
BB%10.7%
77 +52 vs proj
Bat speed68.7
37
K%29.3%
19
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 1B
44
Arm Strength85.0 · 1B
31
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 1B
79
Range Runs-0.1 · 1B
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · 1B
65
SB Success Rate77.8% · 1B
41
Sprint Speed28.2 · 1B
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.6%
67
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.7%
82
Correct Decisions71.0%
90
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherSean Manaea
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)