Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-06-19 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-19

Kerry Carpenter

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs CWSErick Fedde
Sample1360.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
Model 17.8% Market 20.2% Gap -2.4pp
BetMGM 395 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 1.5
P 23.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 23.5% Market -- Gap +0.9pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
61
Exit velocity91.2
87
Hard-hit%48.1%
86
xBA0.330
59
xSLG0.624
81
xwOBA0.302
43
BB%8.6%
47
Bat speed70.3
62
K%31.6%
8
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.0 · RF
25
Arm Strength92.0 · RF
48
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Range Runs-4.9 · RF
4
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
36
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions61.5%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.272 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.335
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.354
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.319 to 0.379
RegressionNegative · -0.078
Opposing pitcherErick Fedde
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)