Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Kerry Carpenter

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IL10 · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs BALKyle Bradish
Sample1449.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.3
F 15.5
V 13.6
Model 18.7% Market 19.7% Gap -1.7pp
DraftKings 390 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.0% Market 77.0% Gap +14.3pp
BetMGM -335 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.8% Market -- Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 410 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.7%
62 -25 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
76
Hard-hit%45.6%
79
xBA0.317
44
xSLG0.582
74
xwOBA0.296
39 -45 vs proj
BB%7.1%
34
Bat speed70.1
56
K%28.8%
19 -25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · RF
45
Arm Strength94.2 · RF
61
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
22
Range Runs-6.7 · RF
2
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · RF
36
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions61.6%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.260 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.335
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.358
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.319 to 0.379
RegressionNegative · -0.039
Opposing pitcherKyle Bradish
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)