Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Heriberto Hernández

MIA · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIA vs NYMSean Manaea
Sample634.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 20 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.9
F 10.7
V 12.7
Model 14.9% Market 12.0% Gap +2.5pp
DraftKings 705 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.3% Market 67.2% Gap +11.6pp
BetMGM -205 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.3%
89 +25 vs proj
Exit velocity91.3
89
Hard-hit%47.4%
87 +17 vs proj
xBA0.355
85
xSLG0.700
95
xwOBA0.352
92 +20 vs proj
BB%10.6%
74 +23 vs proj
Bat speed72.2
82
K%27.4%
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · LF
19
Arm Strength98.7 · LF
87
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
88
Range Runs2.1 · LF
72
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · LF
25
SB Success Rate71.4% · LF
28
Sprint Speed28.5 · LF
80
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.5%
81
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3%
78
Correct Decisions70.3%
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.266 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.011
Opposing pitcherSean Manaea
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)