Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-10 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-10

Noelvi Marte

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCIN vs CHCShota Imanaga
Sample802.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 50.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 50.6% Market 70.2% Gap +9.0pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 14.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 14.5% Market -- Gap +11.8pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
46
Exit velocity89.1
60
Hard-hit%36.5%
36
xBA0.298
25
xSLG0.508
48
xwOBA0.277
21 -27 vs proj
BB%5.5%
17
Bat speed70.4
60
K%26.2%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.7 · RF
28
Arm Strength97.0 · RF
78
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · RF
10
Range Runs-1.9 · RF
26
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts2.0 · RF
34
Sprint Speed29.1 · RF
92
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.1%
Small sample
Correct Decisions60.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline93
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.253 to 0.355
RegressionNegative · -0.062
Opposing pitcherShota Imanaga
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)