Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-07-29 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-29

Agustín Ramírez

MIA · Hitter · bats R · age 25
OUT · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIA vs PHIJesús Luzardo
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.8
F 14.9
V 12.5
Model 20.4% Market 14.6% Gap +5.3pp
FanDuel 560 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.9% Market 71.0% Gap +12.6pp
BetMGM -245 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.5%
27 -49 vs proj
Exit velocity89.6
71
Hard-hit%40.4%
57 -20 vs proj
xBA0.299
25
xSLG0.415
18
xwOBA0.282
25 -49 vs proj
BB%10.6%
74 +52 vs proj
Bat speed74.2
96
K%21.3%
57 -22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-1.4 · C
8
Catcher Throwing-0.5 · C
41
Framing Runs-2.1 · C
25
Pop Time2.0 · C
27
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.3 · C
48
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.319 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.276
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.320 to 0.383
RegressionNegative · -0.054
Opposing pitcherJesús Luzardo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)