Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs CLESlade Cecconi
Sample1973.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.6
F 15.5
V 13.9
Model 21.8% Market 15.0% Gap +6.2pp
FanDuel 540 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.5% Market 80.6% Gap +15.4pp
BetMGM -415 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 30.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.4% Market -- Gap +6.0pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.3%
93
Exit velocity94.3
99
Hard-hit%54.4%
97
xBA0.401
97
xSLG0.705
94
xwOBA0.368
94 +16 vs proj
BB%10.3%
70
Bat speed74.0
94
K%26.8%
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
45
Arm Strength96.6 · SS
97
Outs Above Avg5.0 · SS
91
Range Runs4.6 · SS
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.8 · SS
85
Bolts5.0 · SS
54
SB Success Rate76.5% · SS
36
Sprint Speed28.3 · SS
76
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.2%
73
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.9%
13
Correct Decisions64.8%
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
49
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.326
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.375
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.406
RegressionNegative · -0.042
Opposing pitcherSlade Cecconi
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)