Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-01

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs SDRandy Vásquez
Sample2105.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.3
F 12.6
V 13.2
Model 21.3% Market 15.0% Gap +5.7pp
FanDuel 540 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.5% Market 80.6% Gap +16.5pp
BetMGM -415 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 31.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 31.4% Market -- Gap +4.3pp
FanDuel 180 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.8%
93
Exit velocity94.0
98
Hard-hit%52.5%
97
xBA0.399
97
xSLG0.689
94
xwOBA0.362
95
BB%10.8%
76
Bat speed74.4
96
K%27.2%
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
40
Arm Strength99.8 · SS
100
Outs Above Avg8.0 · SS
94
Range Runs5.9 · SS
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · SS
69
Bolts13.0 · SS
70
SB Success Rate75.0% · SS
33
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
81
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5%
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.8%
15
Correct Decisions65.0%
38
Resists FastballwOBA 0.394
2
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.314 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.252 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.406
RegressionNegative · -0.026
Opposing pitcherRandy Vásquez
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)