Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCIN vs LADTarik Skubal
Sample2129.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 12.8
Model 18.5% Market 15.0% Gap +2.9pp
FanDuel 540 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 77.0% Market 78.0% Gap +15.5pp
BetMGM -355 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.4%
97 +15 vs proj
Exit velocity94.6
99
Hard-hit%54.1%
97
xBA0.407
99
xSLG0.711
96
xwOBA0.368
96
BB%10.8%
77
Bat speed74.3
96
K%27.3%
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
40
Arm Strength99.8 · SS
100
Outs Above Avg7.0 · SS
93
Range Runs5.5 · SS
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.3 · SS
72
Bolts17.0 · SS
73
SB Success Rate76.0% · SS
37
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
80
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.5%
75
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.9%
14
Correct Decisions65.0%
38
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.406
RegressionNegative · -0.033
Opposing pitcherTarik Skubal
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)