Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Elly De La Cruz

CIN · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCIN vs MILDustin May
Sample2136.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.9
F 13.4
V 11.8
Model 19.1% Market 15.0% Gap +3.5pp
FanDuel 540 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.3% Market 80.6% Gap +16.5pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 27.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.7% Market -- Gap +0.8pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%10.0%
98 +17 vs proj
Exit velocity94.6
99
Hard-hit%54.3%
98
xBA0.410
99
xSLG0.729
97
xwOBA0.374
98
BB%10.7%
76
Bat speed74.3
96
K%27.1%
28
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
40
Arm Strength102.0 · SS
100
Outs Above Avg8.0 · SS
93
Range Runs5.6 · SS
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · SS
73
Bolts17.0 · SS
73
SB Success Rate76.0% · SS
37
Sprint Speed28.5 · SS
80
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.7%
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.1%
13
Correct Decisions65.1%
39
Resists FastballwOBA 0.411
1
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.323 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.247 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.364
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.341 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.406
RegressionNegative · -0.032
Opposing pitcherDustin May
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)