Mithrandir Metrics
WSH 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Cj Abrams

WSH · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupWSH vs LAAYusei Kikuchi
Sample2497.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.1
F 13.4
V 16.3
Model 19.1% Market 13.3% Gap +5.3pp
FanDuel 625 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 58.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 58.3% Market 74.7% Gap +14.2pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 25.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 25.1% Market -- Gap +0.6pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
71
Exit velocity89.6
73
Hard-hit%41.5%
66
xBA0.336
71
xSLG0.590
77
xwOBA0.327
75
BB%8.7%
55 +28 vs proj
Bat speed70.8
69
K%24.5%
42 -24 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength90.1 · SS
73
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
46
Range Runs-12.7 · SS
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.5 · SS
91
Bolts12.0 · SS
68
SB Success Rate88.0% · SS
76
Sprint Speed28.4 · SS
78
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.8%
32
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.5%
68
Correct Decisions64.7%
34
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.320 · small sample
10
Resists FastballwOBA 0.384
5
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
42
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.305 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.384 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.332
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.369
RegressionNegative · -0.049
Opposing pitcherYusei Kikuchi
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)