Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-06-19 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-19

Riley Greene

DET · Hitter
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs CWSErick Fedde
Sample2134.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 18.9% Market 17.6% Gap +0.5pp
FanDuel 445 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 1.5
P 25.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 25.8% Market -- Gap +3.6pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
83
Exit velocity91.5
88
Hard-hit%51.0%
92
xBA0.381
93
xSLG0.677
89
xwOBA0.354
83
BB%11.4%
78
Bat speed73.8
94
K%28.2%
20
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.0 · LF
4
Arm Strength86.1 · LF
8
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
44
Range Runs-0.1 · LF
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · LF
51
Sprint Speed26.4 · LF
26
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.9%
77
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0%
83
Correct Decisions70.6%
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
88
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.339 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.276 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.337
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.415
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.045
Opposing pitcherErick Fedde
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)