Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Riley Greene

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs BALKyle Bradish
Sample2246.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.4
F 15.5
V 14.4
Model 19.8% Market 17.6% Gap +1.4pp
FanDuel 445 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 63.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 76.7% Market 77.8% Gap +14.6pp
BetMGM -350 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.7% Market -- Gap +7.1pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.4%
93
Exit velocity91.7
90
Hard-hit%52.0%
95
xBA0.384
95
xSLG0.722
96
xwOBA0.372
95
BB%11.8%
83 +31 vs proj
Bat speed74.1
95
K%26.8%
27
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.1 · LF
3
Arm Strength86.1 · LF
8
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
79
Range Runs1.4 · LF
65
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · LF
34
Sprint Speed26.6 · LF
29
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.6%
76
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.6%
80
Correct Decisions69.9%
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.340 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.420
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.392
RegressionNegative · -0.022
Opposing pitcherKyle Bradish
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)