Mithrandir Metrics
AZ 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Corbin Carroll

AZ · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupAZ vs PITMitch Keller
Sample2202.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 16.7
Model 20.7% Market 17.5% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 450 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.6% Market 81.7% Gap +15.7pp
BetMGM -445 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 29.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 29.1% Market -- Gap +4.2pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.0%
87
Exit velocity91.7
90
Hard-hit%48.9%
89
xBA0.341
71
xSLG0.613
81
xwOBA0.346
83
BB%11.6%
81
Bat speed74.2
95
K%23.6%
44 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.4 · RF
2
Arm Strength86.9 · RF
9
Outs Above Avg9.0 · RF
99
Range Runs7.0 · RF
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.8 · RF
99
Bolts42.0 · RF
94
SB Success Rate85.7% · RF
66
Sprint Speed29.7 · RF
97
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.0%
58
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
57
Correct Decisions66.3%
51
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
59
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.305 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.311 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.401
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.399
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.394
RegressionNegative · -0.032
Opposing pitcherMitch Keller
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)