Mithrandir Metrics
BAL 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupBAL vs TORMax Scherzer
Sample2458.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.8
F 12.0
V 13.5
Model 20.2% Market 17.3% Gap +2.2pp
FanDuel 455 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 69.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 69.3% Market 82.8% Gap +17.4pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 28.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.1% Market -- Gap +0.3pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.7%
48
Exit velocity89.3
68
Hard-hit%43.2%
73
xBA0.318
51
xSLG0.515
56
xwOBA0.314
64
BB%9.5%
63
Bat speed72.5
85
K%21.4%
58
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
59
Arm Strength93.9 · SS
93
Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS
79
Range Runs1.7 · SS
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.6 · SS
86
Bolts2.0 · SS
26
SB Success Rate77.8% · SS
41
Sprint Speed28.2 · SS
72
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.1%
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7%
26
Correct Decisions64.9%
36
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.324 · small sample
7
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.322
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.346 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.348
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.308 to 0.415
RegressionNegative · -0.013
Opposing pitcherMax Scherzer
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)