Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Andrew Vaughn

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIL vs CHC--
Sample2738.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 17 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 0.5
P 3.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 3.2% Market -- Gap +35.2pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
39 -29 vs proj
Exit velocity90.3
81
Hard-hit%44.7%
78
xBA0.327
60
xSLG0.472
40
xwOBA0.335
82
BB%10.5%
74 +44 vs proj
Bat speed68.5
34
K%15.9%
86 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength90.8 · 1B
78
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 1B
7
Range Runs-3.2 · 1B
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · 1B
14
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 74.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.2%
Small sample
Correct Decisions66.8%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.364
RegressionNegative · -0.082
Opposing pitcher--
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)