Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-06-04 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-04

Sal Frelick

MIL · Hitter · bats L · age 26
IN · 7 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs SFAdrian Houser
Sample1377.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 44.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 44.1% Market 67.4% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +9.0pp
FanDuel 8000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.8%
11
Exit velocity85.2
16
Hard-hit%27.4%
9
xBA0.272
12
xSLG0.364
8
xwOBA0.278
21 -25 vs proj
BB%7.9%
39
Bat speed66.0
12
K%11.0%
97
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.8 · RF
8
Arm Strength90.4 · RF
28
Outs Above Avg1.0 · RF
81
Range Runs0.1 · RF
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · RF
72
Bolts6.0 · RF
62
Sprint Speed28.6 · RF
86
SB Success Rate75.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.7%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.8%
19
Correct Decisions68.0%
67
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.267 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.286 to 0.348
RegressionNegative · -0.051
Opposing pitcherAdrian Houser
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)