Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-07-21 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-21

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 5 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupKC vs SFTyler Mahle
Sample1877.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.1
F 15.5
V 16.5
Model 18.1% Market 16.7% Gap +0.7pp
FanDuel 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.9% Market 77.0% Gap +15.2pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.5% Market -- Gap +1.9pp
FanDuel 310 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
53 -18 vs proj
Exit velocity88.5
55
Hard-hit%38.6%
48 -27 vs proj
xBA0.303
29
xSLG0.487
42
xwOBA0.313
58
BB%10.6%
73 +29 vs proj
Bat speed68.4
33
K%16.9%
80
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Range Runs-0.5 · 1B
44
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.3 · 1B
14
Sprint Speed25.7 · 1B
13
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.2%
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.4%
67
Correct Decisions66.4%
53
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.246 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.344 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.318 to 0.376
RegressionPositive · 0.003
Opposing pitcherTyler Mahle
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)