Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Isaac Collins

KC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupKC vs BOSSonny Gray
Sample800.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 46.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 46.3% Market 66.1% Gap +11.4pp
FanDuel 180 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 13.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.6% Market -- Gap +5.3pp
FanDuel 430 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.3%
27
Exit velocity87.2
43
Hard-hit%39.1%
53
xBA0.302
31
xSLG0.420
20
xwOBA0.296
41 -25 vs proj
BB%11.8%
87
Bat speed70.1
59
K%22.0%
55
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.4 · LF
83
Arm Strength91.8 · LF
36
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
50
Range Runs-0.7 · LF
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-3.7 · LF
3
Bolts1.0 · LF
12
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
5
Sprint Speed27.6 · LF
53
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.4%
95
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.0%
42
Correct Decisions69.7%
84
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320
83
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.253 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.237
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.300 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.258 to 0.368
RegressionNegative · -0.013
Opposing pitcherSonny Gray
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)