Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-05-19 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-19

Brenton Doyle

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs TEXKumar Rocker
Sample1551.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 7.5
F 13.4
V 11.1
Model 16.4% Market 12.1% Gap +3.9pp
DraftKings 700 tracking Open board
Total Bases 3.5
P 24.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.2% Market 25.8% Gap +4.0pp
FanDuel 460 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.5% Market -- Gap +81.5pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
37 -20 vs proj
Exit velocity86.9
29
Hard-hit%34.5%
24 -32 vs proj
xBA0.309
33
xSLG0.435
26
xwOBA0.245
6 -36 vs proj
BB%8.5%
45 +25 vs proj
Bat speed69.4
46
K%29.1%
16
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · CF
20
Arm Strength98.9 · CF
93
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
45
Range Runs-0.2 · CF
48
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · CF
58
Bolts7.0 · CF
68
SB Success Rate77.8% · CF
37
Sprint Speed28.8 · CF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.7%
38
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5%
68
Correct Decisions68.0%
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
46

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.257 to 0.326
RegressionNegative · -0.098
Opposing pitcherKumar Rocker
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)