Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Victor Scott II

STL · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSTL vs SFLanden Roupp
Sample700.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 4.3
F 0.0
V 10.3
Model 6.4% Market 7.7% Gap -1.6pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 52.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.3% Market 63.0% Gap +10.2pp
BetMGM -170 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.0%
4 -21 vs proj
Exit velocity79.3
2
Hard-hit%25.8%
8
xBA0.311
41
xSLG0.419
20
xwOBA0.275
23
BB%8.4%
50
Bat speed61.4
1
K%23.3%
47
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · CF
32
Arm Strength91.3 · CF
29
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
49
Range Runs2.7 · CF
76
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · CF
64
Bolts29.0 · CF
82
SB Success Rate72.7% · CF
31
Sprint Speed29.7 · CF
97
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions69.1%
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.255 to 0.333
RegressionNegative · -0.033
Opposing pitcherLanden Roupp
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)