Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Spencer Horwitz

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IL10 · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.7
F 14.9
V 10.0
Model 17.6% Market 11.3% Gap +5.9pp
DraftKings 755 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.1% Market 68.2% Gap +11.9pp
BetMGM -215 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
67 +21 vs proj
Exit velocity86.9
34
Hard-hit%33.5%
27
xBA0.281
15
xSLG0.469
36
xwOBA0.339
78
BB%13.4%
90 +25 vs proj
Bat speed67.4
24
K%13.4%
93 +18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
13
Range Runs-2.0 · 1B
30
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · 1B
11
Sprint Speed24.9 · 1B
4
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.5%
82
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0%
54
Correct Decisions67.2%
61
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.306 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.368
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.352
RegressionNegative · -0.052
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)