Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-09-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-01

Spencer Horwitz

PIT · Hitter
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs SFLogan Webb
Sample1055.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.9
F 11.9
V 9.4
Model 15.0% Market 11.3% Gap +3.3pp
DraftKings 755 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.9% Market 67.7% Gap +11.7pp
BetMGM -210 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.5% Market -- Gap +13.7pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.8%
49
Exit velocity86.9
39
Hard-hit%30.6%
18
xBA0.275
11
xSLG0.434
26
xwOBA0.316
64
BB%12.0%
87
Bat speed67.2
23
K%15.0%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · 1B
9
Range Runs-3.2 · 1B
23
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed24.8 · 1B
4
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.0%
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7%
36
Correct Decisions66.7%
58
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
74
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.280
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.028
Opposing pitcherLogan Webb
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)