Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Colt Keith

DET · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupDET vs BALKyle Bradish
Sample1210.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.0
F 11.6
V 9.5
Model 17.0% Market 10.5% Gap +6.1pp
DraftKings 820 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.2% Market 72.2% Gap +12.9pp
BetMGM -260 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 16.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.7% Market -- Gap +15.6pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
69
Exit velocity89.4
66
Hard-hit%43.1%
69 +15 vs proj
xBA0.340
70
xSLG0.543
63
xwOBA0.321
66
BB%6.0%
20 -32 vs proj
Bat speed70.2
57
K%19.6%
67
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.5 · 3B
39
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
44
Range Runs1.5 · 3B
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.6 · 3B
82
Bolts1.0 · 3B
14
Sprint Speed28.2 · 3B
72
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.4%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions68.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.322 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.317 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.018
Opposing pitcherKyle Bradish
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)