Mithrandir Metrics
TB 2026-08-17 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-17

Junior Caminero

TB · Hitter · bats R · age 23
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTB vs BALBrandon Young
Sample1269.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.7
F 13.4
V 14.2
Model 16.9% Market 22.0% Gap -5.0pp
BetMGM 355 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.7% Market 75.6% Gap +13.7pp
BetMGM -310 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 22.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.0% Market -- Gap +8.3pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.7%
96
Exit velocity93.2
97
Hard-hit%51.5%
95
xBA0.349
80
xSLG0.650
88
xwOBA0.374
96
BB%12.2%
86 +52 vs proj
Bat speed78.2
100
K%18.1%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 3B
68
Arm Strength90.2 · 3B
74
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
26
Range Runs-11.4 · 3B
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.4 · 3B
16
Sprint Speed26.4 · 3B
25
SB Success Rate50.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.1%
63
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.8%
87
Correct Decisions66.3%
52
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.281
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.365 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.415
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.398
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.331 to 0.396
RegressionNegative · -0.037
Opposing pitcherBrandon Young
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)