Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-08

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 1 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs MILJacob Misiorowski
Sample1535.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 57.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.3% Market 69.2% Gap +12.3pp
BetMGM -225 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 12.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 12.9% Market -- Gap +9.4pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.1%
87
Exit velocity89.5
72
Hard-hit%48.7%
91 +27 vs proj
xBA0.375
95
xSLG0.727
96
xwOBA0.374
97 +28 vs proj
BB%11.6%
84 +65 vs proj
Bat speed72.3
83
K%26.0%
34 -20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs4.2 · CF
98
Arm Strength101.0 · CF
96
Outs Above Avg23.0 · CF
100
Range Runs22.1 · CF
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs5.7 · CF
98
Bolts37.0 · CF
89
SB Success Rate84.4% · CF
62
Sprint Speed29.5 · CF
95
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9%
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.6%
75
Correct Decisions64.9%
37
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.035
Opposing pitcherJacob Misiorowski
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)