Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-07-01 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-01

Dillon Dingler

DET · Hitter · bats R · age 28
IN · 2 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupDET vs NYYWill Warren
Sample814.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.3
F 17.9
V 12.4
Model 22.7% Market 12.9% Gap +9.4pp
DraftKings 650 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 67.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 79.6% Market 80.6% Gap +13.6pp
BetMGM -415 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.4% Market -- Gap +9.0pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.9%
90 +35 vs proj
Exit velocity89.8
71
Hard-hit%48.2%
85
xBA0.385
94
xSLG0.719
95
xwOBA0.388
97 +28 vs proj
BB%6.6%
25
Bat speed70.3
62
K%20.3%
61
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.7 · C
96
Catcher Throwing0.2 · C
63
Framing Runs6.4 · C
99
Pop Time1.9 · C
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.2 · C
52
Sprint Speed27.5 · C
53
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.3%
44
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4%
48
Correct Decisions65.5%
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.365 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.369
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.316
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.307 to 0.391
RegressionNegative · -0.022
Opposing pitcherWill Warren
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)