Mithrandir Metrics
MIL 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Jackson Chourio

MIL · Hitter · bats R · age 22
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupMIL vs CINAndrew Abbott
Sample1543.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 30.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.5% Market 45.5% Gap +6.8pp
FanDuel -110 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 3.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 3.2% Market -- Gap +41.8pp
FanDuel 190 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.6%
91
Exit velocity91.8
92
Hard-hit%47.2%
86
xBA0.349
82
xSLG0.636
87
xwOBA0.340
85
BB%7.5%
37
Bat speed72.5
85
K%23.2%
48 -30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.6 · LF
91
Arm Strength95.2 · LF
62
Outs Above Avg4.0 · LF
95
Range Runs4.0 · LF
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · LF
38
Bolts38.0 · LF
89
SB Success Rate73.3% · LF
32
Sprint Speed28.8 · LF
86
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.2%
38
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.9%
33
Correct Decisions64.3%
30
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
32
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.308 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.312
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.396
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.374
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.400
RegressionNegative · -0.040
Opposing pitcherAndrew Abbott
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)