Mithrandir Metrics
TEX 2026-07-27 Refreshed Jul 27 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-27

Evan Carter

TEX · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupTEX vs SEAGeorge Kirby
Sample643.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.074, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.072, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.057, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.087, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.140, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.0
F 17.0
V 9.0
Model 18.7% Market 11.0% Gap +7.3pp
DraftKings 780 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 56.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 67.1% Market 68.2% Gap +11.9pp
BetMGM -215 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 14.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 14.4% Market -- Gap +5.4pp
FanDuel 430 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
29
Exit velocity84.8
17
Hard-hit%37.2%
41
xBA0.274
12
xSLG0.457
31
xwOBA0.293
35 -28 vs proj
BB%13.4%
90 +31 vs proj
Bat speed68.1
29
K%24.1%
41 -15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-1.4 · CF
14
Arm Strength91.1 · CF
31
Outs Above Avg7.0 · CF
98
Range Runs6.5 · CF
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.4 · CF
92
Bolts26.0 · CF
84
SB Success Rate90.9% · CF
81
Sprint Speed28.9 · CF
89
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.4%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.3%
29
Correct Decisions70.0%
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.262 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.353
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.278 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherGeorge Kirby
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-27
Palantir 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 11499 props Brier 0.122 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 5904 props Brier 0.116 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 964 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.031 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 460 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Palantir 5326 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.073 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 344 props Brier 0.177 ECE 0.049 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 512 props Brier 0.259 ECE 0.056 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)